Burn Baby Burn!: Drafting Mono-Red in M20 and the Importance of Limited Metagaming

This entry goes hand in hand with the the archetype guide I shared with Ben and Ethan for Lords of limited Episode 107 https://lordsoflimited.libsyn.com/lords-of-limited-107-m20-metagaming-the-mono-red-menace . I highly recommend you go listen to it and their other content, they put out a stellar podcast as per usual, and did a great job of covering the key points of drafting mono red.

Metagaming in Limited

The way that M20's MTGO metagame has evolved in it's first two weeks of life is a testament to how content creation and the spread of information shape the texture of online play. In the first week of the format, I was going consistently going 3-0 with decks that looked like this:

and this

and this

Week one, the majority of players were still trying to figure out the format and most people were drafting typical "Core Set mid-range" decks, the likes of which get destroyed by how over the top the Sultai decks of the format are able to go. I had identified early that Sultai decks had the most raw power as well as tools to slow down the game to the point where no typical mid-range deck had the chance to compete with value engines like Scholar of the Ages getting looped Ad Infinitum or Bloodsoaked Altar plus Sanitarium Skeleton. 

I felt like I had a solid grasp on the format at this point. M20 was a medium slow format and the best thing you could be doing was casting Winged Words and 7 drops to out-value your opponent; anyone not trying to do this was doing it wrong.

This strategy worked incredibly well.

Until a week and a half into the format.

With the advent of more and more good limited content being produced, and more places for people to talk about and share their drafts, limited metagames tend to evolve much faster than they did even five years ago. After a week, the first wave of M20 limited content started to emerge. Lords of Limited sang the praises of Sultai in their first impressions episode , the Limited Resources sub-Reddit and the Lords of Limited Discord were full of 3-0 Sultai lists, and several great drafters were tweeting pics of their 3-0 decks that were mainly, you guessed it, Sultai.

The word was out, Sultai was the place to be. No longer was I able to run the MTGO tables with the same strategy, as Green, Blue, and Black would dry up almost immediately. Scholar of the Ages and Mouldervine Reclamation were no longer wheeling, and if you didn't first pick Risen Reef, you weren't getting the card (rightly so, it's one absurd piece of cardboard.) I kept ending up in mediocre Sultai decks that I felt lucky to 2-1 with.

I realized that at this point, we had entered level two of the metagame. 

The way that limited metagames operate is different to how constructed metagames do. In a very broad sense, constructed metagames operate as such: Deck A is dominant, so deck B emerges to beat it, leading to people bringing deck C to the table because it beats deck B and so on, sometimes looping back to deck A and sometimes not. This is an extreme simplification, but in general, you build your deck to beat the best deck or the deck that you expect to be a high percentage of the field. 

In limited you don't have that luxury of always playing the most powerful colours in the set or the cards that beat the objectively best deck. In limited, successful metagaming is about understanding what the perceived most powerful deck is, trying to get into it if you can, but knowing/figuring out the next best strategy to draft when you recognize the best decks are being over drafted.

Level 1: Figuring out the best deck/decks in the format and draft them as long as you reasonably can

Level 2: Recognizing that everyone else has figured out the level one best deck will be fighting you for it. Your job is to now find the objective "second best deck" which is now the"best deck" in the metagame

The "best deck" in the format, is only the best deck when it's open. In the majority of sets, you'll train-wreck your draft if you try to force the best deck just because you listened to or read a piece of limited content that said it was the best deck in the format. When enough people are fighting for the level 1 best deck, it's very easy for the next best deck to become the best deck because of how open it becomes and how overdrafted the level 1 deck is.

This is what lead me to successfully drafting a ton of mono red in week two of the format. The Sultai decks were being too heavily drafted that there were times I felt like I was truly the only red drafter at the table. My 3-0 decks started to look like this

and this

and this

I think Mono-red is an excellent deck in M20 draft. It can beat any medium to good Sultai deck, but to stay with out theme of the day of metagaming, it will only be this good for as long as people undervalue red to this extent.

To use a real world example of Level 1 and Level 2 metagaming, MTGO was not the only place where mono-red found success in the past week. I shared my archetype guide with some friends that were drafting on day 2 of GP Detroit. Lo and behold, the archetype was wide open at several tables because the rest of the drafters were fighting over the Sultai cards.

So, how do you apply the concept of limited metagaming to your own drafting?

Well. It's tricky.

Limited metagaming is all about being one level ahead of the other seven players at the table. Going into a new format, this means this means using your own card evaluations, listening/reading limited content (I personally recommend Lord's of Limited, Limited Resources, and Ryan Saxe of SCG's articles) and listening to the opinion of players you trust to formulating baseline evaluations of what you think the best decks/cards could be. By educating yourself you're one step ahead of anyone who doesn't take these steps. This is step one

Step two is where it gets tricky. Seeking information from content creators is a double edged sword. The information they present is public knowledge, and in a lot of ways, content creators set the tone for the metagame. This is what I call the Limited Resources effect. The MTGO meta shifts usually happen upon the release of the newest Limited Resources, Lords of Limited, or a particularly informative CFB article comes out. This is when drafters get the week's juicy new draft info and want to try out the best cards for them-self.

This is when you need to be aware of Level 2

Now, i'm not saying to do the opposite of your favorite content creator says to draft, quite the opposite, you should try to draft the best deck, but be vigilant enough to know that everyone else at the table know's its the best deck and move into an under-drafted archetype to capitalize on your opponents who may be tunnel visioned on the level one best deck.

Who you're drafting with and how late into the format it is are also important considerations. Drafting on MTGO 2 weeks after the set comes out, a day after the newest LR was posted? You should probably be prepared to face level 2 of the format. Drafting at your LSG on release week? Don't next level yourself, it may be reasonably easy to soft force the best deck, don't automatically assume everyone knows the information you do. Above all, a lot of what i'm saying comes down to draft what is open. Draft what is open, but use the ideas of metagaming to help make tiebreaker picks and provide context to what's happening in the draft.

Here is the archetype guide that you may or may not have already heard from listening to Lord of Limited. There are a few extra tidbits I've added since so skim through it even if you already gave it a listen.

Mono Red

Game Plan: Mono red is the most aggressive deck you can draft in M20. This deck is all about getting your opponent from 20 to 0 as fast as you can. Your plan is to curve out with creatures turns 1 to 4 to get in early damage, and then use cards like Goblin Smuggler and Mask of Immolation to push through the last few points. The deck is effective for 3 reasons

1. It makes good use of cards that nobody wants/often wheel like Scorch Spitter, Destructive digger, Goblin Smuggler (This one probably won’t be wheeling much longer)

2. All of red’s commons contribute to the same plan, there are very few midrangy red cards commons in M20, you’ll never end up with pack that have the “wrong half” of the red commons you want to see

3. Red’s commons/uncommons have sneaky synergy: Goblin Smuggler pushing through Lavakin Brawlers, Scorch Spitters, Unchained Beserkers, and Chandra’s spitfire. Chandra’s Embercat casting turn 3 Lavakin Brawler/uncommon Chandra, 2 cards that are very hard to deal with on turn 3. Scorch Spitter triggering Chandra’s spitfire

This is the type of deck that is the  exception to the common phrase “every limited deck is just a shade of midrange” You should be building and drafting knowing that you will be the aggressor, and be aware of the fact that certain hands need to be aggressively mulligan'd to find more action.

Cards that pull me into this deck specifically

Rares

A strength of this deck is that a good version of the deck can be built using just commons, but there are a few rares that are quite good here.

Cavalier of Flame: an insane curve topper

Chandra Acolyte of Flame: Creates two bodies that can attack with impunity each turn, flashes back shock, synergizes with mask of immolation and Lavakin Brawler

Glint-horn Buccaneer: Provides card filtering on an aggressive body, an excellent combo with both Chandra’s Spitfire and Gobblin Smuggler

Chandra’s Regulator: A good payoff for being Mono R, The Chandra text comes up more often than you’d think

Uncommons

Chandra, Novice Pyromancer: Best uncommon in the set and even better in this deck. All three abilities are relevant, you end up with a good amount of elementals and the mana ability allows you to double spell every turn

Chandra’s Spitfire: Capable of dealing massive amounts of damage, especially with Mask of immolation 

Ember Hauler: One of the best 2’s in the format and it's mana requirements are trivial in this deck

Mask of Immolation: This card is still underrated, Turns your small creatures into removal spells, has elemental synergies, provides reach 

Commons

The Fantastic Four, this deck is really defined but 4 commons that all work well together/have synergy between them: Goblin Smuggler, Lavakin Brawler, Chandra’s Embercat, Scorch Spitter

GOBLIN SMUGGLER: This card is the real deal, the linchpin of the deck. A hasty threat that is a must kill in the mid to late game. Making a 2 power creature unblockable means a lot more than just 2 damage because of Chandra’s Spitfire, Lavakin Brawer, Unchained Berserker, Pack Mastiff etc.

Chandra’s Embercat: A mana dork that can actually attack for damage is a big deal. Playing a Chandra or Lavakin a turn ahead of schedule puts a massive amount of pressure on the opponent. Has elemental Synergies, is a good target for your Goblin to smuggler to allow you to get in for damage even if your opponent has played a 2 drop. 

Lavakin Brawler: Punches through for massive amounts of damage with Goblin Smuggler, but even without it, is very hard to block because of 4 toughness, incentivizes double blocks which can lead to blowouts. 

Scorch Spitter: A 1 drop that pressures early but can still get in later, thanks to smuggler, up’s your elemental count for Lavakin brawler

All of the other non removal spell red common I could take or leave, they are interchangeable but most are quite good (Pack mastiff, Destructive Digger, etc)

How do you end up here?

I usually end up here by taking some of the good rares, uncommons, or removal spells early, but I also don’t shy away from taking some of the stronger cards like Goblin Smuggler or Lavakin Brawler early if the packs are weak. Midpack-late pack seeing any of the “Fantastic Four” push me to move in. 

Spell Curve of Commons/Uncommons

Infuriate	Mask Of Immolation	Act of Treason (more likely to play this if I have Mask of Immolation	Chandra’s outrage
Shock			Chandra, Novice Pyromancer
Manafold Key (reasonable replacement for smuggler if you don’t get any)

Creature Curve of Commons/Uncommons

Scorch Spitter	Ember Hauler	Goblin Smuggler	Lavakin Brawler
	Chandra’s Embercat	Chandra’s Spitfire	Scampering Scorcher
	Pack Mastiff		Keldon Raiders
	Goblin Bird Grabber

Deck Underperformers

Daggersail Aeronaut: Not enough punch for 4 mana. Can’t block well the turn it comes down like Lavakin Brawler. 4 drop spot is contested and Lavakin Brawler and Keldon Raiders are better

Maniacal Rage: You usually don’t have to stoop this low, there are better ways to push through damage

Creature:Spell Ratio

Heavily weighted towards creatures, 15-16 of them usually. You can’t afford to have an opening hand of just removal spells, You have to get on board

# of lands: 16. One of the benefits of being mono coloured is you don’t have to worry about the number of sources you have for your colours. I don’t like going down to 15 because of the powerful 4 drops and mana sinks like Destructive Digger and Pack Mastiff. 

Sideboard Plans

A really effective sideboard plan I’ve liked is boarding out Scorchspitters and siding in Ripscale Predators plus a land on the draw, big things.dec, or against decks that have incidental Lifegain. Spitters are less likely to be good on the draw and opponents frequently board down to smaller creatures to keep up, making the Ripscales go over the top, especially when they’ve traded off resources aggressively by the time it comes down 

Leyline of Combustion is a real card to consider if your opponent is on mono removal.

Being not quite mono red

It’s hard to end up with 23 great Red playables so sometimes you splash 1-5 cards of another colour. The way I like to draft this deck is having a pile of red cards, and then cherry picking a few great cards of other colours if the pack doesn’t have a great playable for me. Be mindful of your manabase, double costed cards are usually unplayable in a good version of this deck. Cards to play on a light splash:


White: Pacifism, Skyknight Vangaurd

Blue: Cloudkin Seer, Lightning Stormkin

Black: Audacious Thief (great with Smuggler), I don’t like splashing Murder, you want your mana to be consistent. Planning to cast Scorch Spitter on turn one, Ember Hauler and Murder in a 16 land deck is a recipe for getting mana screwed.


Green: Rabid Bite, Creeping Trailblazer