The Do’s and Don’ts of M20 Limited – What I’ve learned from 100 drafts

I have to start by giving a huge round of applause to the WotC Set Design and Play Design teams for making the return to core sets a huge success in terms of creating deep and engaging limited environments. M19 certainly had its detractors (I was not one of them, that set was great) but the general consensus for M20 is that it’s the best core set limited environment of all time.

I’m officially 100 drafts in and each time I crack my packs, I find i'm still  presented with interesting decisions in both in the draft and during the games. One of the things that makes a limited format engaging for me is watching it transform and discovering how my initial evaluation of cards and archetypes evolve and change as I play with the set. The items on this list of do’s and don’ts are reflective of how these evaluations have changed from draft 1 to draft 100. Many of them highlight my level-up moments in the format, times when I discovered a leak in how I had been approaching the format and how I subsequently changed said approach, leading to a better conceptualization of the format as a whole. Let’s jump in!

Do #1: Do take Cloudkin Seer over Murder P1P1



When I first saw Cloudkin Seer on the day it was previewed, I literally did a double take, zooming in on my phone to make sure that I was reading  it correctly. Cloudkin Seer harbors an absurd amount of power for a three-mana common creature. Cloudkin Seer wins the Quadrant Theory test, the entire thing. It’s exactly what you want at every stage of the game. It’s card advantage without tempo loss, it’s a threat, it trades off well, it’s cheap, it generates velocity and, to top it all off it has a set-relevant creature type. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that it’s the best common printed in a standard set since Mulldrifter in Lorwyn.

As amazing as Cloudkin Seer reads on first blush, it wasn’t immediately obvious that it was the best common in the set. In a alot of formats, the best commons are just the removal spells and with M20 continuing the trend that War of the Spark started, a return to efficient removal at common, thar seemed likely to be the case for M20.

Murder is the poster child for efficient removal spells in M20, and a card that I know many players had as the best common going into the set. However, as the format went on, it became clear to many players including me, that even though Murder is very good, Cloudkin Seer just checks too many boxes and is too rawly powerful to not earn the title of best common.

Murder is great, don’t get me wrong (also wow, FBI guy watching my computer, it’s not what it looks like) but there are a good handful of spells in the set that approximate what it does. Pacifism, Chandra’s Outrage, Shock, and Rabid Bite are all great removal spells and while they aren't quite on the level of murder, they fill the same taxonomic role in your deck that Murder does. The reason that Cloudkin Seer gets my vote for the best common is that no other common comes close to what it does and how well it does it. Irreplaceability is a big factor is how highly you should take a given card P1P1 and Cloudkin Seer happens to be at top of its class in that regard. On top of how good the card is in a vacuum, M20 is a particularly kind environment to Cloudkin Seer, as there are a bunch of ways to recur your creatures, and cards that reward you for certain features of the card like the flying/elemental synergy cards.

You can take Murder over Cloudkin Seer P1P1 and you won’t have made a terrible mistake, but I do think that it is the less powerful card and that you’re giving up some percentage points by doing so.

Don’t #1: Don’t look to the wedge archetypes to tell you how to draft each colour pair.




efore a set comes out, WotC usually publishes a list of the intended archetypes/ strategies for each colour pair. For M20, they took a pretty novel approach to this, where instead of designing linear strategies around two-colour pairs, the archetypes were more loosely focused and designed around the 5 wedges al la Khans of Tarkir.

The prescribed archetypes are as follows:

·       Flying (blue-red-white)

·       Elementals (green-blue-red)

·       Go Wide (white-black-green)

·       Aggro (red-white-black)

·       Control with "Enters-the-Battlefield" Effects (black-green-blue)

Most of these make a lot of sense and play out closely to how they are presented. In UG, UR and RG, you’re paid off for having a lot of elementals in your deck and in UB, BG and UG, you want to grind and many of your payoff creatures have impactful ETB effects. On the surface, it seems the descriptor tells you what you want to do while drafting and what your deck wants to do, however as you dig a bit deeper some problems arise.



When I’m learning a new format I want to have a very clear idea of what each colour pair wants to do so that I know where to prioritize certain cards in the draft and figure out what mono colours commons are secretly gold cards (for example, Ferocious Pup isn’t a card I ever really want in RG but it can be a fine role player in GB and WG.) After a few drafts, I realized that the wedge descriptors weren't really giving me what I needed to wrap my head around what each colour pair wanted to do. 



GB is a grindy deck with good ETB’s, ok that makes sense, but wait, it also wants to go wide? RW is an aggro deck but also a flying payoff deck? What are my payoffs here? A white removal spells that aggro decks don’t want and a medium at best two drop?

The problem here is that some or the enemy pairs are much more aligned with one strategy than others. GB for example is much more “Sultai Grind” than it is “Abzan go wide” and RW is much more of an aggro deck than one centered around flying. To account for this, you need to adjust your picks and evaluations accordingly. If you were drafting M20 for the first time and saw that GB was part of the “go wide” wedge, you might think that a card like Overcome exactly what the deck wants, but that’s usually not the case.

Here’s a quick rundown of what I consider to be the true archetypes for each colour pair

UW: Flying synergy
UB: Grindy Control/ Scholar of the ages loop decks
UG: Elementals/a base for 3-5 colour good  stuff
UR: Aggro/Tempo, the only real Elemental payoff is Lavakin brawler and the only flying payoff is Winged Words, don’t focus too hard on either theme, just have a solid aggressive deck
BG: Grindy control, Mouldervine Reclamation.dec
BW: Go wide with Corpse Knight and Gruesome Scourger as payoffs or lifegain matters (reliant on uncommon payoffs to be good)
RW: Go wide aggro, raise the alarm based
GW: Go wide aggro, raise the alarm based
BR: Midrange grind. Not really an aggro deck. Good removal but black’s threats are generally weak, the deck can be more aggressive if you are red based
RG: Elementals with the highest density of payoffs

Do #2: Do take the X and Y colour hoser cards higher than you are now

M20 presents us with this cycle of extremely powerful colour hosing spells




A month into the format, these cards are still going close to last in too many MTGO pods. It seems that most people are taking these cards in the spot where they would take traditional sideboard cards like Disenchant or Shatter ( or possibly just taking middling maindeck playables over them) but you can meaningfully improve your card pool by ending up with 3-4 of these cards in your sideboard. Being able to bring in a couple A-level removal spells in relevant matchups grants a gigantic boon to your win percentage.

I’m taking these cards above C level playables in pack 1 and 2, and then above C plus/ Some B minus cards in pack 3 once you know for sure what colours you’re in. Remember, at least 50 percent (and on average, more than that) of your games are played post sideboard. Having a strong main deck is important but don’t underestimate the power of having a strong post-board plan.

Don’t #2: Don’t play the Cavaliers ( or other hard to cast cards) if your manabase can’t afford them 



The cycle of elemental Cavaliers are some of the most powerful cards in the set, but as a foil to that, they’re costed accordingly. To play them responsibly, you need at very least 9 sources of the requisite colour needed to cast them, and ideally 10-12 if you want to cast them on turn 5. If you don’t meet that requirement, you should seriously consider not including them in your deck, as you risk not being able to cast them in a timely fashion. Conversely, if the rest of your deck is mainly a colour that the Cavalier is not, you can’t afford to play a bunch of lands that don’t cast the majority of your spells to try to accommodate your sweet mythic. This also applies to the CCC cycle of rares in M20 (Gargos, Villis, etc.)




This deck from Twitter user @KaptainMeliodas really illustrates this point. There’s no way that they could have put more blue sources into their deck without royally messing with their ability to cast their red spells, meaning the Cavalier stays int he board. Limited manabases are poor by nature, putting additional stress on them with irresponsible builds usually loses you more EV than it gains.




Do #3: Do pick dual lands and evolving wilds over C level playables



Trailing off of the previous “don’t” point, limited mana bases inherently are much worse than most people give them credit for. The standard 8-9 split manabase has you drawing lands and spells that don’t match an alarming amount of the time (I highly recommend checking out Frank Karsten’s articles about building manabases if you want to check out the numbers and haven’t already)

M20 blesses us with fixing at common that doesn’t take up a spell slot. Take advantage of this 

opportunity and strive to build a good manabase. Having 2-3 dual lands in your deck improves your manabase substantially, meaning succumbing to variance less often and even having to mulligan less.

Don’t #3: Don’t mis-evaluate these cards

I specifically bring up these cards because I see them go later than they should (by a lot in some cases)

Mask of immolation: This card is great, and I’ve seen in wheel in pack 1 with some amount of consistency which should basically never happen. Mask does a lot of small things that add up to one very good card. The initial ping usually kills a small creature and from there you can use your more irrelevant creatures to kill fliers or just finish off your opponent. In addition to its surface level uses, the card really loves Chandra’s Spitfire, Sanitarium Skeleton, and Act of Treason. I take my first Mask over my first Shock/Chandra’s Outrage, it’s on power level with the removal spells but is less replaceable  



Chandras Regulator: A lot of early set reviews poo-poo’d this one, but in a deck with 9 + mountains, the card does a good Merfolk Looter impression and with 2 Chandras in the set trinket text comes up a good amount



Loxodon Lifechanter: I think the secret is mostly out on this one but a bit earlier in the format I was getting passed this card in pack 1. This card is busted good and even if you have an aversion to white, it’s a great splash card.




Golos: I would say the secret about Golos is also out but this one I do still get passed to me in pack 1. Golos is great and worth building around, one activation is usually game over and a lot of decks will play him even if they can’t activate him.  




Bag of holding: This is just a good card advantage engine; I have this as better than every common/uncommon P1P1 except Chandra Novice Pyromancer (Risen Reef is up there too but colourless>gold)

Do #4: Do take Pattern Matcher early and play it even with one match




Pattern matcher is a card I’m happy to take early out of a pack that doesn’t have any premium commons or uncommons. Four mana 3/3 is a reasonable stat-line in this format and drawing a card off this card is pretty common with just a little bit of good deck building.

Playing pattern matcher with only one potential match in your deck is still fine, as drawing a card from it is such high upside, and the floor of the card isn’t embarrassing.

Don’t #4: Don’t be ROTY about Rotting Regisaur

Rotting Regisaur has created more polarizing opinions than any other card I can remember. I’ve heard players whose opinions I respect say that the card is a P1P1 over every common and uncommon, and others saying its hot garbage. This discrepancy of opinions makes sense as how good the card varies greatly from game to game. Sometimes you play it on turn 3 and you opponent loses on turn 6 and sometimes it gets Pacified and you basically lose on the spot.

I’ve personally landed somewhere in the middle on the card. I take it early and almost always include it in my deck with the understanding that it will lose me the game sometimes and that’s ok. Whether you decide to draft/play Rotting Regisaur is up to you, but the important thing to remember is that when you put the card in your deck, you’re accepting that the card has a massive range for how well it performs and that its neither amazing nor awful based on the small sample of games you play with it.  Just like every card we evaluate, Rotting Regisaur should be evaluated based on its floor and ceiling and is never a fixed point on that scale.

Do #5: Do draft white when it’s open

I think white kind of got a bad rap early in the format that it never quite shook. It’s certainly the worst colour in the format but by a fair margin, but it’s not quite at the “avoid at all costs” level where I’ve seen some people have it. White’s commons are under-powered when compared to the other colours, but it is among the strongest colours when you look at the higher rarity cards.

I’m not looking to move into white early, but if I’m seeing quality cards like Griffin Protector wheeling, I’ll make some late speculative white picks and see if I get passed some of the better cards in later packs. White being perceived as awful is a boon for drafters willing to speculate on it as you’ll often get passed A level cards from people that are trying to avoid the colour at all costs. 



Since white is bad at attacking on the ground, a successful white deck needs to be at least one of the following things

1. A Raise the Alarm style deck with anthem effects

2. A deck that has white as its secondary colour, cherry picking the best cards from the colour (Pacifism, good uncommons/rares)

3. A deck that lucks out and just has very high card quality (usually meaning you’re the only white drafter at the table, which happens semi-regularly

Don’t #5: Don’t be Midrange

If you’ve listened to Lords of Limited, this is something that you’ve already heard, but I do want to echo it here. M20 has insanely powerful deck at both ends of the spectrum; Mono-red decks that are looking to kill you on turn 5 and Decks that want to grind until turn 15 and lock you out of the game by looping Scholar of the Ages.

Being caught somewhere in the middle isn’t somewhere that I’m really looking to be if I can help it. This isn’t to say that midrange decks can’t be good, more that for them to compete with decks on either end of the spectrum, they need high card quality to not just get demolished by a deck with a more streamlines plan.

I leave you dear reader with my M20 card rankings from 17lands.com for anyone who wants to compare card evaluations. It’s a great tool and I highly recommend using it. https://www.17lands.com/card_tiers/shared/371b8cbf6c864cbcb330c1273fd5271f

Burn Baby Burn!: Drafting Mono-Red in M20 and the Importance of Limited Metagaming

This entry goes hand in hand with the the archetype guide I shared with Ben and Ethan for Lords of limited Episode 107 https://lordsoflimited.libsyn.com/lords-of-limited-107-m20-metagaming-the-mono-red-menace . I highly recommend you go listen to it and their other content, they put out a stellar podcast as per usual, and did a great job of covering the key points of drafting mono red.

Metagaming in Limited

The way that M20's MTGO metagame has evolved in it's first two weeks of life is a testament to how content creation and the spread of information shape the texture of online play. In the first week of the format, I was going consistently going 3-0 with decks that looked like this:

and this

and this

Week one, the majority of players were still trying to figure out the format and most people were drafting typical "Core Set mid-range" decks, the likes of which get destroyed by how over the top the Sultai decks of the format are able to go. I had identified early that Sultai decks had the most raw power as well as tools to slow down the game to the point where no typical mid-range deck had the chance to compete with value engines like Scholar of the Ages getting looped Ad Infinitum or Bloodsoaked Altar plus Sanitarium Skeleton. 

I felt like I had a solid grasp on the format at this point. M20 was a medium slow format and the best thing you could be doing was casting Winged Words and 7 drops to out-value your opponent; anyone not trying to do this was doing it wrong.

This strategy worked incredibly well.

Until a week and a half into the format.

With the advent of more and more good limited content being produced, and more places for people to talk about and share their drafts, limited metagames tend to evolve much faster than they did even five years ago. After a week, the first wave of M20 limited content started to emerge. Lords of Limited sang the praises of Sultai in their first impressions episode , the Limited Resources sub-Reddit and the Lords of Limited Discord were full of 3-0 Sultai lists, and several great drafters were tweeting pics of their 3-0 decks that were mainly, you guessed it, Sultai.

The word was out, Sultai was the place to be. No longer was I able to run the MTGO tables with the same strategy, as Green, Blue, and Black would dry up almost immediately. Scholar of the Ages and Mouldervine Reclamation were no longer wheeling, and if you didn't first pick Risen Reef, you weren't getting the card (rightly so, it's one absurd piece of cardboard.) I kept ending up in mediocre Sultai decks that I felt lucky to 2-1 with.

I realized that at this point, we had entered level two of the metagame. 

The way that limited metagames operate is different to how constructed metagames do. In a very broad sense, constructed metagames operate as such: Deck A is dominant, so deck B emerges to beat it, leading to people bringing deck C to the table because it beats deck B and so on, sometimes looping back to deck A and sometimes not. This is an extreme simplification, but in general, you build your deck to beat the best deck or the deck that you expect to be a high percentage of the field. 

In limited you don't have that luxury of always playing the most powerful colours in the set or the cards that beat the objectively best deck. In limited, successful metagaming is about understanding what the perceived most powerful deck is, trying to get into it if you can, but knowing/figuring out the next best strategy to draft when you recognize the best decks are being over drafted.

Level 1: Figuring out the best deck/decks in the format and draft them as long as you reasonably can

Level 2: Recognizing that everyone else has figured out the level one best deck will be fighting you for it. Your job is to now find the objective "second best deck" which is now the"best deck" in the metagame

The "best deck" in the format, is only the best deck when it's open. In the majority of sets, you'll train-wreck your draft if you try to force the best deck just because you listened to or read a piece of limited content that said it was the best deck in the format. When enough people are fighting for the level 1 best deck, it's very easy for the next best deck to become the best deck because of how open it becomes and how overdrafted the level 1 deck is.

This is what lead me to successfully drafting a ton of mono red in week two of the format. The Sultai decks were being too heavily drafted that there were times I felt like I was truly the only red drafter at the table. My 3-0 decks started to look like this

and this

and this

I think Mono-red is an excellent deck in M20 draft. It can beat any medium to good Sultai deck, but to stay with out theme of the day of metagaming, it will only be this good for as long as people undervalue red to this extent.

To use a real world example of Level 1 and Level 2 metagaming, MTGO was not the only place where mono-red found success in the past week. I shared my archetype guide with some friends that were drafting on day 2 of GP Detroit. Lo and behold, the archetype was wide open at several tables because the rest of the drafters were fighting over the Sultai cards.

So, how do you apply the concept of limited metagaming to your own drafting?

Well. It's tricky.

Limited metagaming is all about being one level ahead of the other seven players at the table. Going into a new format, this means this means using your own card evaluations, listening/reading limited content (I personally recommend Lord's of Limited, Limited Resources, and Ryan Saxe of SCG's articles) and listening to the opinion of players you trust to formulating baseline evaluations of what you think the best decks/cards could be. By educating yourself you're one step ahead of anyone who doesn't take these steps. This is step one

Step two is where it gets tricky. Seeking information from content creators is a double edged sword. The information they present is public knowledge, and in a lot of ways, content creators set the tone for the metagame. This is what I call the Limited Resources effect. The MTGO meta shifts usually happen upon the release of the newest Limited Resources, Lords of Limited, or a particularly informative CFB article comes out. This is when drafters get the week's juicy new draft info and want to try out the best cards for them-self.

This is when you need to be aware of Level 2

Now, i'm not saying to do the opposite of your favorite content creator says to draft, quite the opposite, you should try to draft the best deck, but be vigilant enough to know that everyone else at the table know's its the best deck and move into an under-drafted archetype to capitalize on your opponents who may be tunnel visioned on the level one best deck.

Who you're drafting with and how late into the format it is are also important considerations. Drafting on MTGO 2 weeks after the set comes out, a day after the newest LR was posted? You should probably be prepared to face level 2 of the format. Drafting at your LSG on release week? Don't next level yourself, it may be reasonably easy to soft force the best deck, don't automatically assume everyone knows the information you do. Above all, a lot of what i'm saying comes down to draft what is open. Draft what is open, but use the ideas of metagaming to help make tiebreaker picks and provide context to what's happening in the draft.

Here is the archetype guide that you may or may not have already heard from listening to Lord of Limited. There are a few extra tidbits I've added since so skim through it even if you already gave it a listen.

Mono Red

Game Plan: Mono red is the most aggressive deck you can draft in M20. This deck is all about getting your opponent from 20 to 0 as fast as you can. Your plan is to curve out with creatures turns 1 to 4 to get in early damage, and then use cards like Goblin Smuggler and Mask of Immolation to push through the last few points. The deck is effective for 3 reasons

1. It makes good use of cards that nobody wants/often wheel like Scorch Spitter, Destructive digger, Goblin Smuggler (This one probably won’t be wheeling much longer)

2. All of red’s commons contribute to the same plan, there are very few midrangy red cards commons in M20, you’ll never end up with pack that have the “wrong half” of the red commons you want to see

3. Red’s commons/uncommons have sneaky synergy: Goblin Smuggler pushing through Lavakin Brawlers, Scorch Spitters, Unchained Beserkers, and Chandra’s spitfire. Chandra’s Embercat casting turn 3 Lavakin Brawler/uncommon Chandra, 2 cards that are very hard to deal with on turn 3. Scorch Spitter triggering Chandra’s spitfire

This is the type of deck that is the  exception to the common phrase “every limited deck is just a shade of midrange” You should be building and drafting knowing that you will be the aggressor, and be aware of the fact that certain hands need to be aggressively mulligan'd to find more action.

Cards that pull me into this deck specifically

Rares

A strength of this deck is that a good version of the deck can be built using just commons, but there are a few rares that are quite good here.

Cavalier of Flame: an insane curve topper

Chandra Acolyte of Flame: Creates two bodies that can attack with impunity each turn, flashes back shock, synergizes with mask of immolation and Lavakin Brawler

Glint-horn Buccaneer: Provides card filtering on an aggressive body, an excellent combo with both Chandra’s Spitfire and Gobblin Smuggler

Chandra’s Regulator: A good payoff for being Mono R, The Chandra text comes up more often than you’d think

Uncommons

Chandra, Novice Pyromancer: Best uncommon in the set and even better in this deck. All three abilities are relevant, you end up with a good amount of elementals and the mana ability allows you to double spell every turn

Chandra’s Spitfire: Capable of dealing massive amounts of damage, especially with Mask of immolation 

Ember Hauler: One of the best 2’s in the format and it's mana requirements are trivial in this deck

Mask of Immolation: This card is still underrated, Turns your small creatures into removal spells, has elemental synergies, provides reach 

Commons

The Fantastic Four, this deck is really defined but 4 commons that all work well together/have synergy between them: Goblin Smuggler, Lavakin Brawler, Chandra’s Embercat, Scorch Spitter

GOBLIN SMUGGLER: This card is the real deal, the linchpin of the deck. A hasty threat that is a must kill in the mid to late game. Making a 2 power creature unblockable means a lot more than just 2 damage because of Chandra’s Spitfire, Lavakin Brawer, Unchained Berserker, Pack Mastiff etc.

Chandra’s Embercat: A mana dork that can actually attack for damage is a big deal. Playing a Chandra or Lavakin a turn ahead of schedule puts a massive amount of pressure on the opponent. Has elemental Synergies, is a good target for your Goblin to smuggler to allow you to get in for damage even if your opponent has played a 2 drop. 

Lavakin Brawler: Punches through for massive amounts of damage with Goblin Smuggler, but even without it, is very hard to block because of 4 toughness, incentivizes double blocks which can lead to blowouts. 

Scorch Spitter: A 1 drop that pressures early but can still get in later, thanks to smuggler, up’s your elemental count for Lavakin brawler

All of the other non removal spell red common I could take or leave, they are interchangeable but most are quite good (Pack mastiff, Destructive Digger, etc)

How do you end up here?

I usually end up here by taking some of the good rares, uncommons, or removal spells early, but I also don’t shy away from taking some of the stronger cards like Goblin Smuggler or Lavakin Brawler early if the packs are weak. Midpack-late pack seeing any of the “Fantastic Four” push me to move in. 

Spell Curve of Commons/Uncommons

Infuriate	Mask Of Immolation	Act of Treason (more likely to play this if I have Mask of Immolation	Chandra’s outrage
Shock			Chandra, Novice Pyromancer
Manafold Key (reasonable replacement for smuggler if you don’t get any)

Creature Curve of Commons/Uncommons

Scorch Spitter	Ember Hauler	Goblin Smuggler	Lavakin Brawler
	Chandra’s Embercat	Chandra’s Spitfire	Scampering Scorcher
	Pack Mastiff		Keldon Raiders
	Goblin Bird Grabber

Deck Underperformers

Daggersail Aeronaut: Not enough punch for 4 mana. Can’t block well the turn it comes down like Lavakin Brawler. 4 drop spot is contested and Lavakin Brawler and Keldon Raiders are better

Maniacal Rage: You usually don’t have to stoop this low, there are better ways to push through damage

Creature:Spell Ratio

Heavily weighted towards creatures, 15-16 of them usually. You can’t afford to have an opening hand of just removal spells, You have to get on board

# of lands: 16. One of the benefits of being mono coloured is you don’t have to worry about the number of sources you have for your colours. I don’t like going down to 15 because of the powerful 4 drops and mana sinks like Destructive Digger and Pack Mastiff. 

Sideboard Plans

A really effective sideboard plan I’ve liked is boarding out Scorchspitters and siding in Ripscale Predators plus a land on the draw, big things.dec, or against decks that have incidental Lifegain. Spitters are less likely to be good on the draw and opponents frequently board down to smaller creatures to keep up, making the Ripscales go over the top, especially when they’ve traded off resources aggressively by the time it comes down 

Leyline of Combustion is a real card to consider if your opponent is on mono removal.

Being not quite mono red

It’s hard to end up with 23 great Red playables so sometimes you splash 1-5 cards of another colour. The way I like to draft this deck is having a pile of red cards, and then cherry picking a few great cards of other colours if the pack doesn’t have a great playable for me. Be mindful of your manabase, double costed cards are usually unplayable in a good version of this deck. Cards to play on a light splash:


White: Pacifism, Skyknight Vangaurd

Blue: Cloudkin Seer, Lightning Stormkin

Black: Audacious Thief (great with Smuggler), I don’t like splashing Murder, you want your mana to be consistent. Planning to cast Scorch Spitter on turn one, Ember Hauler and Murder in a 16 land deck is a recipe for getting mana screwed.


Green: Rabid Bite, Creeping Trailblazer